UPDATE: Russian min sees econ falling 0.6% in Q2, zero Q3, rising 1.2% Q4

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MOSCOW, Apr 21 (PRIME) -- The Russian Economic Development Ministry has improved its outlook for the gross domestic product (GDP) contraction to 0.2% from 0.3% in 2016, while quarterly GDP is expected to contract 0.6% in April–June, keep flat in July–September and rise 1.2% in October–December, Minister Alexei Ulyukayev told the government Thursday.

In January–March, the Russian economy shrank by 1.4%, Ulyukayev said.

Monthly inflation will remain at 0.5–0.6% until July, according to documents of the ministry. Overall in 2016, consumer prices will increase by 6.5%, Ulyukayev said.

In an unlikely case of a U.S. $25 per barrel average oil price, inflation will be about 9% this year, he said.

Retail sales volumes will decrease 2.7% in 2016, according to the ministry. “In general, in 2016, the retail turnover reduction will be comparable with the income decrease and will stand at 2.7%.”

Investments will fall by 3% in 2016 from 8.4% in 2015, Ulyukayev said.

Banking liquidity exceeds 500 billion rubles, the minister said. “We have seen a liquidity surplus since February, which means that both people and businesses increased funds on their accounts in the banking system, they (banks) do not need to turn to refinancing of the Central Bank of Russia.”

(66.0364 rubles – U.S. $1)

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